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Are we heading for a crash?

no votes
?
by prole-art-threat

Old news I know but stories like this about Northern ROck (which annoyingly I have a lot of savings with) after recent stock market wobbles around the world seem to be precipitating something 'worse' - how will this affect Last FM?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6994328.stm

prole-art-threat | 14 Sep '07, 15:39 | Send note | Report this | Reply

The Northern Rock

story is of no greater consequence to the British Economy as a whole. So no.


it just seems like a new 'angle' on the fact that borrowing is out of control

and now no one wants to lend anyone anything. Chaos theory eh? I know nothing about 'money' so I'm just being a bit 'layman' about it - a sort of 'everyman' but without the likeability.


So much money is either loaned from one company to another

or indeed entirely 'hypothetical' that we have to be at serious risk of something going very, very wrong.


^I phrased that terribly

Hope people know what I'm trying to say.


Maybe. DiS has been pretty slow today.

And IT are installing new software at 5:30!

The signs aren't good.


I don't fancy either of them much

(I know it's the wrong thread, but I'm bored and thought it would be FUNNY)

Abando...


yes we are

it may be mitigated by prompt action by gordon.

Please see my worry and anger yesterday in such threads as 'its the beginning of the end' and satchi and satchi.

and all of that was before northern rock requested assistance


hey now he was being grumpy with me Creakers

get your own row!!

It won't affect Truck will it?


I wasn't being grumpy!

I just don't believe that it'll have that much affect. It's obviously an unprecendented step, but I don't think the Bank Of England would have taken it if they weren't fully confident that it really isn't 'the beginning of the end'. or something.


grumpy.

no I didn't thnk the world was going to end and we'd ahve to go back to just listening to Cds forever, I just meant it was a bit '1992' but not the Love Album.

Anyone have a clue what I'm on about?


fools are often fully confident

no...thats not fair. they would take that step to allay fears which is a very sensible thing to do.

its best to stop a panicky slide so that you can then take steps when there is less crisis, to reduce the pressures that might cause a systemic failure.

Northern Rock is symptomatic (of what they describe as the credit crunch from bad loans in the states) the problem that they are not explaining is that there is a potential for bad loans here, because if the ratres go up much then (with the obscenely overpriced housing over here, meaning that people are far higher in debt than the=ir assets are actually worth)

There is also the awful problem where the warped house prices has resulted in excessive credit card overspend (the rational being for some.....my house has doubled in price i have (say) 200k house i have mortgage of (say 80k therefore if i go 50k overdrawn on card so what? im still quids in.......this sort of mistaken belief (encouraged by financial institutios who should know better because they are meant to be experts) means that people with one house (if they sell they have to buy nother house with no dosh to spare) have hocked themselves into debt they otherwise wouldnt have, merely because in theory their house is worth more, yet that 'increase' is unavailable to them, and is only dependant on others paying unreal inflated prices, if that goes on they will never be able to realise that increase. the crediut that they have been prepared to borow on their cards and throuhg loans is what has kept the retail sector boyant. If this is removed bad tings happen.

Its actually all pretty simple and straightforward, but a bit like the emporors new clothes perhaps?

I would agree with your next question which might be "if this is the case then wouldnt the experts have done something about it?"

Well it would seem not, this baffles me. and because it is so baffling mostly makes me keep my fears to myself, because I convince myself that that which seems perfectly clear to me must be mistaken and a product of a fevered and slightly deranged mind, i now voice it because I am now worried that perhaps my brain hasnt been malfunctioning, because I se the harbingers of what I worried about coming to pass.

Like I say timing anfd the right messages backed up by corect steps to alliviate the problems after averting the immediate crisis might help. If Gardon pulls it off then you should actually hail him as being quite skillful..........except that he was in charge of the economy for quite a whilke now ...wasnt he?


There's no way I'm reading that much writing, sorry

I'll just accept that I'm right.


maybe

but if banks and financial institutions are taking on board such risky deals they shouldn't be propped up by the state.


and if they aren't

the whole system comes crashing down


I think there's a risk of it happening.

The current culture of debt and lending can't last forever, if people can't actually pay it all off.

Queing outside northern rock to draw out all of your money isn't really going to help them much either.


not when you have an online account like me

I looked today and their system is down. The only good thing about them is that you ring them and you get straight trhough like your calling a friend who doesn't get many calls.

Yes but you like banks Tom I've seen you 'rapping' about them on here


NO.

The future's bright.


no - the banking system isn't in that bad a shape

northern rock's problem is its business is very mortgage focussed - most banks a wide spread of activities and risk. i'm guessing northern rock will vanish and its business bought by competitors. but i don't think the wider economy is at major risk - there's still plenty of scope for injecting liquidity.

your savings are safe by the way, unless you have over £30k


and i think the failure of northern rock - all the queues outside their branches -

is a wake up call to the bank of england. they're gonna need to be a bit more proactive and aggressive in ensuring the stability of the banking system and averting panic in the markets / amongst customers.

anyway, i'm HOPING this is not 1929 again!


if I had over 30K I wouldn't be on here would I?

I'd be swanning round Lombard Street in a solid gold top hat with my thumbs smugly in my lapels occasionally stopping to click my heels and doff my worryingly heavy hat at ladies.

See I told you I knew 'nothing' of money


your first £30k of savings at a bank are 100% protected by the bank of england

the next £30k are 90% guaranteed

beyond that and you join the list of creditors


i thought it was the first 2k

that's 100% guaranteed, then the rest 90%?

matters not, i'm ploughing my savings into a new bathroom floor *screams* ROCK AND ROLL


if covered by the fsa

the first £2k is 100% guaranteed and the next £33k is 90% guaranteed


oops

ah well


All my friends who work in banks

are predicting big crashes soon and have their stock options ready to sell at a moments notice. They scare me


ha ha youve got savings.....

still thats a lot better than having borowings, with savings all you can do is lose it, with borrowings what would happeb if borrowing rates doubled or tripled or quadrupled.

The financial institurtions have already made clear that they will increase the rates even though the bank of england has not increased interest rates therefore one might say why should the bank of england help the mortgage lenders.

Of course they have to help them though and in the short term they should help them.

Its no good going into a period of re-adjustment as a panic out of control slide.

Gordon Brown and the BOE should atempt to bouy confidence, but with the provisio that things will need readjusting slowly (unless it is too late to stop the panicy slide)

One thing that will give is housing prices, i.e the BOE and chancellor should do all they can to stop them increasing, people whi have brought speculatively as an investment will (and should) be hit, simply because they are those who can bear the hit best as their investment is speculative and therefore not essential to them.

The worst thing of all would be to hit the large number of single home owners as this would further cause them to increase spending and send the (consumer......cos what else is britain) economy into recession.

Everything, all prices, expectations, nodels and forecasts and borrowing and lending has been based on rqmped up figures once thee start to look unachievable then companies (financial vcompaniies would be well adcised to not try to maintain their shareholders profit by hitting the borrowers or that would seriously kill the economy for good and have far more effect on destroying the west than osama has. It will mean vast unemployment, collapse of businesses and (since supermarkets are now the only way that people can be fed in this country) te y will need to be supported by government if they start to collapse.
monetary inflation will increase and value of over inflated capital investment will drop in real terms.
DFinancial institutions that lend will at first attempt to up their rates untill the arrears will force institutions to reposess. since this will potentially affect millions of people and there will be no-one to sell them to, unless the gov allows sharks to overnight possess all housing stock, then the lenders will eventually give up on repossessions but in the meantime they will have created thousands and thousands more homeless, jobs will dissappear, retail businesses will close, things to buy will become scarce, violence will erupt

ta da


fuck

i'm going to have to go back to work

i'm listening to 'messages', btw


ie. a repeat of 1990-92

although there will be an increase in repossessions - especially as banks will have to increase interest rates to account for the increase in risk - the BofE has much more room to moneuvre.

the economy is much more subject to international forces, although the economy is also much more in thrall to property money. oil is getting more and more expensive which means that most currencies are rising against the dollar (which oil is traded in). china et all are increasing buying up euros, pounds, etc too. this allows more room for interest rate cuts. as long as oil doesn't stoke up inflation too much, there's not much chance of interest rates spiralling out of control.

as a keynsian, i'd love it if the government were to announce a £100 billion transport infrastructure programme right about now - it'd be good for the economy and is desperately needed


I agree that rail should be invested in I also think that wireless should be a public infrastructure

However of course oil will add to inflationary woes and stoke up interest.

Lets hope Osama hasnt just been waiting for the worse time to attack oil eh?


well it would certainly be a distraction

and help camoflage what was happening, nd panic will be half the problem


SHARKS?

Owning all the housing??

That sounds scary

and impractical if anything

. . . .
< >
- -


On the plus side...

...if you have any radical philosophical ideas for global domination then any social collapse will provide you with an ideal window of opportunity.

Ready those manifestos kids!

(Q: Is that the plural of manifesto?)


there was hench up queues outside the northen rock in Reading at lunch

I want some of the action, well without the loss.

anyone gots some free money for reece?





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